Iran-Pakistan strikes: What are the odds of yet another war breaking out?


According to the news reports, Iran and Pakistan have both conducted strikes on each other’s territories in an unprecedented escalation of hostilities between the neighbors. The two countries share a volatile border, with Pakistan’s Balochistan province on one side and Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province on the other. Both nations have long fought militants in the restive Baloch region along the border. But while the two countries share a common separatist enemy, it is highly unusual for either side to attack militants on each other’s soil.

The latest strikes come as Iran’s allies and proxies in the Middle East – the so-called axis of resistance – launch attacks on Israeli forces and its allies against the backdrop of the war in Gaza. Here are some of the key events and factors that led to the current situation:

  • On Tuesday, January 16, 2024, Iran conducted strikes on Pakistan’s Balochistan province, killing two children and wounding several others, according to Pakistani authorities. Iran claimed it had “only targeted Iranian terrorists on the soil of Pakistan” and that no Pakistani nationals were targeted1. Iran’s state-aligned Tasnim news agency said it had been targeting strongholds of the Sunni militant group Jaish al-Adl, known in Iran as Jaish al-Dhulm, or Army of Justice. The separatist militant group operates on both sides of the Iran-Pakistan border and has previously claimed responsibility for attacks against Iranian targets. Its ultimate goal is independence for Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province.
  • The Iranian strike sparked anger in Pakistan, which called the strike "an egregious violation of international law and the spirit of bilateral relations between Pakistan and Iran". Pakistan summoned Iran’s ambassador to Islamabad to lodge a formal protest. Pakistan also said it reserved the right to respond "at a time and place of its choosing".
  • On Thursday, January 18, 2024, Pakistan struck back with what it called a “series of highly coordinated and specifically targeted precision military strikes” on several alleged separatist hideouts in Sistan and Baluchestan . Pakistan’s foreign ministry said a number of militants were killed. Iranian authorities said at least seven people were killed in a series of explosions – three women and four children.  Pakistan said it had for years complained that separatist fighters had “safe havens and sanctuaries” in Iran – and was forced to take matters into its own hands with Thursday’s strikes
  • Pakistan’s strikes reportedly focused on positions held by two Baloch separatist factions, namely the Balochistan Liberation Front and the Balochistan Liberation Army. Both groups have claimed responsibility for attacks on Pakistani security forces and infrastructure in the past. They seek greater autonomy and rights for the Baloch people, who are ethnically distinct from the dominant Punjabis in Pakistan.
  • Iran and Pakistan have both condemned the ongoing Israeli offensive in Gaza, which has killed more than 200 Palestinians and 12 Israelis since it began on May 10. Iran has also accused Israel of being behind a series of attacks on its nuclear facilities and scientists, as well as the assassination of its top general Qassem Soleimani in 2020. Iran supports several armed groups in the region that oppose Israel, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen4. Pakistan, on the other hand, has maintained diplomatic ties with Israel, but has also expressed solidarity with the Palestinian cause.

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